Following on the heels of a month that witnessed
a combination of profit-taking and short-term
market correction, November saw hedge funds
bouncing back into positive territory, with
most Eurekahedge regional and strategy indices
recording returns upwards of 2%. Investors
were visibly buoyed by robust economic data,
Japan's positive turn, moderate inflation
in the US and the Federal Reserve's apparently
diminishing concerns about rising inflation.
The benchmark Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index
returned a handsome 2.2% for the month.
Performance by Investment Region
Among funds by investment region, those
allocating to Asia ex-Japan were the clear
leaders for the month, up a spectacular
3%. This was in stark contrast with October's
performance numbers, where the region was
a loss-leader. Key equity markets such as
those in Korea, Australia and India were
already on the rebound towards the end of
October and long/short funds (typically
long-biased in Asia), multi-strategy and
relative value funds were able to catch
the uptrend early on. Japanese funds, continuing
on their upward trek in an expansionary
regime, chalked up returns of 2.7% on average.
Even the relatively under-performing regional
funds, viz European and North American funds,
when considered on a stand-alone basis,
fared rather well recording healthy gains
of 1.7% and 1.6% respectively. The chart
below gives a snapshot of the performance
of the Eurekahedge regional hedge fund indices
during the month. A more elaborate analysis
of the various regional market and performance
trends is carried out in a later part of
this write-up.
Eurekahedge Performance
Indices (Regions)
Performance by Investment Strategy
The following chart depicts the comparative
performance of various Eurekahedge hedge
fund strategy indices. As is evident from
the chart, CTA/managed futures funds registered
the most gains for the month with the corresponding
Eurekahedge index up 4%. For commodity allocations,
these robust returns were primarily owing
to the uptrend in precious metals in general,
and gold exposure in particular. During
the month, gold prices rallied from US$468
an ounce to nearly US$500, reaching an 18-year
high. On the managed futures front, these
funds largely benefited from currency positions
exploiting the weakness in the Japanese
yen against the US dollar and the euro.
The yen dropped 15% against the US dollar
to a 32-month low.
Multi-strategy funds were the next best
performers (+2.4%). The trading environment
for long/short funds proved a little choppy
despite the market upswing (both the S&P
and the NASDAQ Composite reached new 4-year
highs, up 3.5% and 5.3% respectively, as
they repositioned their trading books precisely
to take advantage of this upswing. Consequently
the corresponding Eurekahedge index closed
the month slightly lower at +2.3%.
On the other end of the strategy returns
chart were convertible arbitrage and fixed
income funds, returning a marginal 0.3%
each for the month. While the former had
to cope with further concerns over year-end
redemptions and further dips in market volatility
during the first half of the month, the
latter were affected by relatively flat
credit markets. One instance severely impacting
these two groups of funds was the crisis
at the power major, Calpine, whose CFO left
the company during November. This event
unearthed problems within the company previously
unnoticed by the market. Calpine's bonds
fell 50% and its convertibles, 80%. However,
the situation was not entirely grim, as
November was the strongest month this year
in terms of new convertibles issuance.
The US equity markets rallied in November
as evidenced by the rise in the S&P
index (3.5%) and the NASDAQ Composite (5.3%).
Strong economic data (for instance, jobs
numbers returned to pre-Katrina levels and
home sales surged), and lower energy prices
resulting in moderate inflation, were the
main catalysts in this rally. The lower
energy prices (West Texas Intermediate oil
prices fell from US$59.8 to US$57.3) were
a result of warmer-than-expected weather
in the US during November. Small- and mid-cap
stocks generally outperformed their large-cap
peers, a trend that could only have helped
skilled stock pickers.
In the treasury markets, the Federal Reserve
once again raised its funds rate by 0.25%.
The yield curve flattened further with short-term
rates on the rise and long-term rates moving
downwards. 10-year yields ended the month
six basis points lower at 4.5%.
In the currency markets, the US dollar strengthened
against both the euro and the Japanese yen,
appreciating from yen 116.4 to 119.8, and
from euro 0.83 to 0.85.
Hedge Fund Performance
In the North American markets, CTA/managed
futures funds were the top revenue earners
for the month, gaining a solid 2.8% on average.
A strong US dollar, and a rally in the precious
and base metals markets played catalyst.
Long positions in equity indices accounted
for the bulk of gains for most macro fund
managers, who benefited from the clear trends
and low volatility, and posted healthy returns
at 1.9%.
Convertible arbitrage and fixed income
funds, on the other hand, had a flat month
with returns of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.
Fixed income players on the short side suffered
when the treasury markets rallied in the
earlier part of the month. The treasury
curve also further flattened later in the
month. Among convertible arbitrageurs too,
fixed income and volatility players were
the most hurt and dragged the index down.
Strategy
Nov 052
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
Convertible Arbitrage
0.29%
0.13%
1.97%
5.31%
12.58%
Distressed Debt
1.67%
0.86%
7.19%
19.83%
31.88%
CTA/Managed Futures
2.8%
-0.64%
0.35%
5.27%
16.30%
Event Driven
1.79%
-2.28%
5.67%
16.01%
28.76%
Fixed Income
0.08%
0.08%
3.95%
10.73%
14.38%
Long/Short Equities
1.72%
-1.69%
6.30%
9.31%
23.10%
Macro
1.86%
-0.46%
9.32%
6.29%
33.62%
Multi Strategy
0.70%
-1.27%
3.79%
12.89%
19.50%
Relative Value
0.55%
-1.03%
4.90%
11.82%
25.15%
Eurekahedge North American Hedge Fund Index
1.56%
-1.17%
5.19%
9.77%
21.46%
Outlook
The short-term outlook for US hedge funds
looks positive in an environment of robust
economic data, eased inflationary pressures,
a strengthening dollar and declining oil
prices, whetting investors' risk appetites
at least in the near term. There is also
positive market-specific data to look forward
to. For instance, in the convertibles space,
new issuance continues to be robust and
investment bankers look to fill the calendar
before year end.
Europe
Markets at a Glance
In Europe, equity markets inched upwards
despite the announced hike in the ECB's
benchmark rate, as the ECB indicated that
that would not be the first of a series
of hikes. Trends were along the lines of
those seen in the US equity markets, with
small- and mid-cap equities turning out
strong performance. A return of liquidity
to and confidence in the emerging markets
in Eastern Europe, M&A activity in the
equity markets, lower volatility and positive
trends in energies and other commodities,
helped funds secure solid gains. The MSCI
Europe Index gained 3.1%. Oil related sectors
were the only exception to the general trend
of recovery from October's lows. The strongest
of the European markets was the DAX which
posted a return of over 5%, while the UK
market dragged.
Interest rate markets in the European Union
moved up during the beginning of the month
but reversed the losses completely in the
second half of the month.
Energies continued to have a rough month
in November owing to persisting warm weather
and the concomitant sluggishness in demand.
The problem was further compounded by new
supplies hitting the western European and
US markets.
In the currency markets, the euro ended
the month weaker against the dollar, as
markets took in benign inflation numbers
and a less hawkish ECB, which signalled
that any rate increases would be limited.
Hedge Fund Performance
Among European hedge funds, multi-strategy
and long/short funds capitalised on the
bullish equity markets and registered the
most gains, ending the month 2.3% and 2.1%
higher, respectively. Skilled stock pickers
in these funds also benefited from the fact
that small- and mid-cap equities outperformed
the large-cap players in the markets. For
instance, Italian financial stocks Unicredito
and Fondiaria Sai, both rose by 12%; Spanish
media company Telecinco moved 10% higher;
and paper producer Holmen was up 9%. The
best performing sectors were insurance,
tech stocks and electronics.
In contrast with their US counterparts,
CTA/managed futures funds were the worst
performers for the month in Europe, posting
negative returns of 0.2%. Warmer-than-expected
weather in the US put a damper on oil demand
and oil prices and the continued slump affected
players in energies and related stocks.
Fixed income funds also had a bad run during
the month amidst flat yield curves and high
volatility.
Strategy
Nov 051
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
Arbitrage
1%
-0.09%
2.90%
4.89%
3.68%
CTA/Managed Futures
-0.22%
-0.84%
0.46%
-7.45%
7.44%
Distressed Debt
0.70%
-0.41%
7.78%
17.26%
34.12%
Event Driven
1.08%
-1.51%
7.71%
10.12%
10.6%
Fixed Income
-0.55%
-1.36%
3.37%
9.32%
19.31%
Long/Short
2.07%
-2.23%
11.38%
10.26%
10.59%
Multi Strategy
2.33%
-2.83%
11.98%
13.84%
12.01%
Relative Value
1.03%
-1.24%
6.33%
5.71%
9.22%
Eurekahedge European Hedge Fund Index
1.72%
-1.98%
9.84%
9.13%
10.36%
Outlook
The outlook for European equities is largely
positive with reasonable valuations, good
earnings growth, and a continuing high level
of M&A activity. Also, the relatively
higher economic growth, low interest rates
and a weak currency are all conducive to
investor confidence in the region.
Japan
Markets at a Glance
Equity markets had a strong rally in November
owing to a return of liquidity into the markets,
increased capital spending and upward revisions
to growth estimates. The Nikkei was up 9.3%
and the TOPIX 6.3%. Sectors sensitive to interest
rates such as insurance and banks were among
the worst performers over the month as expectations
grew that the Bank of Japan will stick to
its zero interest rate policy. Given that
Japan is now in the global spotlight as a
"hot market", inflows are now seeking
yen-sensitive stocks, making the bullish run
even more broad-based.
Yield differentials dominated the weakening
of the yen, as Japanese investors continued
to invest in foreign sovereign debt and
politicians lobbied with the Bank of Japan
to continue with the loose monetary policy.
Also the US dollar strengthened on expectations
of higher interest rates.
Hedge Fund Performance
With equity indices in Japan reaching new
5-year highs, it comes as no surprise that
funds allocating to equities, such as event
driven and long/short funds, had a terrific
run in November, posting returns of 7.3%
and 2.5% respectively. Many event driven
funds have also added to their M&A positions
in several mergers with due dates in early
2006.
Relative value funds, on the other hand,
were the only negative return generating
strategy at -1.4%. These funds, especially
the ones relying on technical and assets-based
signals, were hit by the fact that investors
focused almost exclusively on earnings revisions
without much consideration for valuations.
Strategy
Nov 051
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
Long/Short
2.52%
1.65%
16.85%
8.78%
16.29%
Multi Strategy
1.96%
1.48%
9.83%
26.68%
26.74%
Relative Value
-1.38%
-1.22%
2.28%
6.42%
6.07%
Event-driven
7.30%
3.42%
37.36%
32.25%
2.18%
Eurekahedge Japan Hedge Fund Index
2.68%
1.59%
16.81%
10.54%
18.37%
Outlook
If the Bank of Japan succumbs to political
pressure concerning continuance of the zero
interest rate policy, it would produce a
prolonged period of negative real interest
rates, which in turn is good news for a
range of assets including equities. Given
the market expectations on the likelihood
of this, the outlook for opportunities in
the Japanese markets continues to be very
positive.
Asia ex-Japan
Markets at a Glance
During November, most Asian equity markets
strongly rebounded from October's lows.
The MSCI Far East ex-Japan Index was up
7%. Strong US economic data and positive
Fed comments eased investors' concerns about
growth and interest rates. This easing of
investor concerns was particularly evident
in Taiwanese technology stocks, which had
borne the brunt of the risk-averse investing
of the previous months and finally got into
positive territory.
In China, there were signs that the authorities
were accelerating foreign access to the
market, and some shareholding reforms. The
Hang Seng Index was up 3.8% and the H-share
Index was up 5.5%. November also saw a notable
increase in the number of small-cap IPOs,
in turn increasing the investment opportunities
on offer. There were nine IPOs in November,
eight of them finding their way into the
secondary market. Also, the first ever Link
Real Estate Investment Trust issued by the
government performed rather well, up over
30%.
The Korean market (up 10%) rallied strongly,
partly triggered by major deregulation announcements
by the Financial Supervisory Service.
Indian equities rallied strongly as foreign
investors became net buyers, bringing liquidity
into the market to the tune of US$902 million.
MSCI India returned 9.9% for the month.
Economic data show no signs of retreat,
and market sentiment on India is very upbeat.
GDP growth remains strong despite higher
energy costs, with the third quarter growth
figure at 8%.
The Australian equity markets too returned
close to all-time highs, with the S&P/ASX200
up 4.5% for the month. Speculations about
an end to the Fed rate hikes and the declining
oil price, have contributed to the solid
gains, despite economic data falling below
market expectations. The Australian dollar
weakened against the US dollar, and bond
yields fell ten basis points from 5.5% to
5.4%.
Hedge Fund Performance
Again unsurprisingly, given the booming
equity markets in Asia, the best performers
for the month were long/short (+3.4%) and
multi-strategy (+3.2%) funds. Korea, India,
Taiwan (+9%) and China led the way, while
Thai and Malaysian markets continued to
lag.
Funds allocating to distressed debt had
a relatively flat month in November, rising
0.7%. The distressed debt market had rather
slim pickings for the month barring one
name that many global players seemed obsessed
with LG Phillips Displays (LGP).
LGP is facing the twin problems of declining
revenues (and by extension, profits) due
to rapidly declining prices for its products,
and the huge costs of shutting down unprofitable
production facilities in Europe. As the
largest remaining player in this industry,
players continue to monitor LGP to determine
whether LGP would gain market share and
recover, or default.
Strategy
Nov 05
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
Convertible Arbitrage
1.10%
-2.05%
1.85%
-1.79%
n/a
Distressed Debt
0.69%
-0.38%
7.14%
19.13%
24.12%
Event Driven
1.31%
-0.15%
8.07%
17.73%
9.31%
Fixed Income
0.69%
-0.07%
9.99%
14.67%
11.90%
Long/Short Equities
3.43%
-3.23%
8.15%
9.19%
37.17%
Multi Strategy
3.21%
-2.71%
6.06%
11.46%
26.85%
Relative Value
2.58%
-0.56%
14.60%
-3.48%
34.13%
Eurekahedge Asia ex-Japan Hedge Fund Index
3.07%
-2.72%
8.08%
9.89%
32.22%
Outlook
As 2005 draws to a close, prospects for
2006 look encouraging, particularly so in
Asia. Japan's reflation and restructuring
story remains intact, investor confidence
in Indian and Korean markets over the recent
months suggests a bullish short-term and
China's growth is again on the acceleration
path. In such an environment, Asia promises
to generate healthy returns in the near
term for hedge funds across strategies.
Latin America
Markets at a Glance
The MSCI EMF Latin America Index rose 7.9%.
Brazil and Mexico were the leading return
generators, both closing the month at over
8%. Brazilian markets rallied sharply amidst
an interest rate cut and a significant improvement
in the price of Brazil's international debt.
However, the issue of capacity constraints
has come to the fore as a result of the
recent disappointing industrial production
and third quarter GDP data.
Mexico's GDP, on the other hand, grew 3%
year-on-year and the Central Bank continued
with its gradual interest rate cuts.
Argentina underperformed in November (-0.3%)
after the government ousted the respected
former finance minister Lavagna in favour
of a politically motivated appointment.
This increased investors' caution levels
over Argentina's medium-term prospects.
Neither the liquidity nor the complacency
of foreign inflows, seen in the last few
months, could offset this.
Hedge Fund Performance
Onshore Funds
Among onshore Latin American funds, long/short
equities and relative value were the most
profitable strategies, posting superb returns
at 3.8% and 2.7% respectively. While most
Latin American funds were generally assisted
by the equity rallies, Argentinean funds
did not have such a bad run either because
of the significant profit-taking that took
place in October and insured these funds
from November's negative performance.
The worst performers for the month were
Brazilian funds allocating to the CTA/managed
futures strategy, returning a rather poor
-2% for the month. The Brazilian Central
Bank, with a goal of reducing dollar-indexed
domestic debt, resumed its reverse swap
auctions during the month. Despite BCB becoming
a net buyer, the dollar remained in a downtrend
vis-à-vis the Brazilian real, partly
owing to the strong performance of the Brazilian
trade sector (US$4.1 billion surplus). Given
the strength of the US dollar in November
(for instance, against euro and yen), managed
futures funds that misread this trend could
have pulled the index down.
Strategy
Nov 05
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
CTA/Managed Futures
-2.01%
4.10%
-20.84%
19.33%
4.27%
Event Driven
2.21%
0.98%
28.35%
39.54%
38.56%
Long/Short
3.83%
0.26%
22.09%
35.27%
57.29%
Macro
0.23%
1.28%
5.64%
6.63%
34.39%
Multi Strategy
2.34%
0.87%
17.92%
19.70%
23.57%
Relative Value
2.68%
-3.89%
0.86%
48.56%
54.11%
Eurekahedge Latin American Offshore Hedge Fund Index
2.34%
0.74%
16.9%
22.29%
37.10%
Offshore Funds
Among offshore funds too, long/short equities
was the best performing strategy, with funds
allocating to this strategy up 3.6% for
the month. Investors concentrated on liquidity
and good technicals, ignoring increasingly
overstretched valuations. Consequently,
Latin American markets posted strong results,
and by extension, so did equity-focused
funds such as macro and long/short funds.
Macro funds returned solid gains at 2.5%,
generally benefiting from the broad directional
trends in November. On the other hand, event
driven offshore funds had a flat month in
November, returning a dismal 0.1%.
Strategy
Nov 05
Oct 05
YTD 2005
2004
2003
Event Driven
0.06%
-0.77%
17.20%
20.31%
36.13%
Long/Short
3.56%
-2.55%
16.12%
31.18%
55.83%
Macro
2.54%
-0.99%
5.07%
4.93%
9.80%
Multi Strategy
1.85%
-0.75%
13.27%
16.56%
36.48%
Eurekahedge Latin American Offshore Hedge Fund Index
2.64%
-1.71%
14.27%
21.12%
54.11%
Outlook
Latin America has enjoyed sustained investor
interest in its growth potential with solid
GDP growth and healthy third quarter figures
(cash flows and earnings have grown by over
35% each, on average). The only probable
dampers to this positive outlook are 1)
extremely high valuations and 2) the upcoming
spate of Latin American presidential elections
11 elections within a span of 18
months that will add an air of uncertainty
to the region's momentum of growth and may
induce volatility into the markets in the
coming months.
Conclusion
On a summary note, what the month saw was
a typical end-of-the-year liquidity-fuelled
rally in equity markets across the board.
As evident from movements in the various
regional markets, equities are being continuously
supported by global liquidity and economic
data. The lack of aggressiveness of key
central banks despite higher inflation is
helping shape market expectations and risk
appetites. Key emerging markets such as
Brazil, Mexico, India and China remain poised
for further positive returns in 2006, and
all the usual arguments steady external
demand for raw materials and consumer goods;
rising income levels in support of
this contention are in place.
Having said that, it remains to be seen
whether the next few months will see investors
riding on the momentum of this month's rally.
While increased volatility may still be
expected in the coming few months owing
to the monetary uncertainty in Japan and
the US, returns of early reporting funds
to the Eurekahedge database point towards
a positive month in December. Furthermore,
the market correction seen in the previous
month is largely perceived by the market
as a "nudging ahead" of what is
historically a year-end phenomenon. So we
do expect the markets to remain positive
in the near term.
Preliminary NAV returns for December indicate
returns of around 2.1% for the Eurekahedge
Hedge Fund Index and 9.9% for 2005. Please
visit http://www.eurekahedge.com/indices
for a daily update on all 200 Eurekahedge
indices.
Footnotes
1Spanning
2,082 funds globally and across all strategies.
2Based on 93.36% of the NAV data
for November received to date (2 January
2006). 3The All Strategies Index is
a separate index and derives its value not
only from the actual performance of the
listed strategies for the investment region
but also from the strategies which are not
listed (due to strict Eurekahedge indices
guidelines) but having the same investment
mandate.
If you have any comments about or contributions
to make to this newsletter, please email
editor@eurekahedge.com